酝酿中的泡沫

发自纽约——由于低于以往的GDP增长以及高失业率继续折磨大多数发达经济体,它们的央行也因此采取了越来越多的非常规货币政策。一系列以字母简称命名的措施已经出台:ZIRP(零利率政策);QE(量化宽松,就是当短期政策利率为零时购买政府债券来降低长期利率);CE(信贷宽松,或购买私人资产以降低私人部门的资本成本);和FG(前瞻指引,致力于维持量化宽松或零利率政策直到失业率降到某一水平)。有些甚至提出了NIPR(负利率政策)。

然而经过了这一切之后增长率仍然低迷,失业率高得令人无法接受,部分原因是量化宽松的货币供应并未带动信贷增长以促进私人消费或投资。相反,银行以闲置超额准备金的形式淤积了货币基数的增长。同时还出现了信贷恐慌的情况,因为资金不足的银行不愿意贷款给高风险借款人,而增长的放缓以及高水平的家庭债务也抑制了信贷需求。

结果,所有这一切使得过剩的流动性都流向了金融部门而非实体经济。接近零利率政策鼓励的“套利交易”——以债务融资去投资收益更高的风险性资产,如政府和私人的长期债券、股票、大宗商品和高利率国家的货币。其结果就是原本暗流涌动的金融市场最终演变成了泡沫。

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