酝酿中的泡沫

发自纽约——由于低于以往的GDP增长以及高失业率继续折磨大多数发达经济体,它们的央行也因此采取了越来越多的非常规货币政策。一系列以字母简称命名的措施已经出台:ZIRP(零利率政策);QE(量化宽松,就是当短期政策利率为零时购买政府债券来降低长期利率);CE(信贷宽松,或购买私人资产以降低私人部门的资本成本);和FG(前瞻指引,致力于维持量化宽松或零利率政策直到失业率降到某一水平)。有些甚至提出了NIPR(负利率政策)。

然而经过了这一切之后增长率仍然低迷,失业率高得令人无法接受,部分原因是量化宽松的货币供应并未带动信贷增长以促进私人消费或投资。相反,银行以闲置超额准备金的形式淤积了货币基数的增长。同时还出现了信贷恐慌的情况,因为资金不足的银行不愿意贷款给高风险借款人,而增长的放缓以及高水平的家庭债务也抑制了信贷需求。

结果,所有这一切使得过剩的流动性都流向了金融部门而非实体经济。接近零利率政策鼓励的“套利交易”——以债务融资去投资收益更高的风险性资产,如政府和私人的长期债券、股票、大宗商品和高利率国家的货币。其结果就是原本暗流涌动的金融市场最终演变成了泡沫。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/EDT8DFT/zh;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now