Risiken und Chancen in den Schwellenmärkten

NEW YORK – Eine Definition einer Schwellenmarkt-Volkswirtschaft ist, dass ihre politischen Risiken größer und die Glaubwürdigkeit ihrer politischen Strategien geringer sind als in den hochentwickelten Volkswirtschaften. Nach der Finanzkrise, als die Volkswirtschaften der Schwellenmärkte weiter robust wuchsen, schien diese Definition überholt; nun, angesichts der jüngsten u.a. durch eine geringere Glaubwürdigkeit der Wirtschaftspolitik und wachsende politische Unsicherheit angetriebenen Turbulenzen in den Schwellenländern scheint sie so relevant wie eh und je.

Man denke etwa an die sogenannten „fragilen Fünf“: Indien, Indonesien, die Türkei, Brasilien und Südafrika. Allen sind nicht nur wirtschaftliche und politische Schwächen (Haushalts- und Leistungsbilanzdefizite, Wachstumsrückgang und Inflationsanstieg, schleppende Strukturreformen) gemein; alle stehen in diesem Jahr zudem vor Präsidentschafts- oder Parlamentswahlen. Viele andere Schwellenländer – die Ukraine, Argentinien, Venezuela, Russland, Ungarn, Thailand und Nigeria – sehen sich ebenfalls erheblichen politischen und/oder gesellschaftlichen Unsicherheiten und inneren Unruhen ausgesetzt.

Die Liste lässt den gefährlich instabilen Nahen Osten außer Acht, wo der Arabische Frühling in Libyen und Ägypten einem Winter brodelnder Unzufriedenheit Platz gemacht hat. Bürgerkriege wüten in Syrien und schwelen im Jemen, und Irak, Iran, Afghanistan und Pakistan bilden einen durchgehenden Bogen der Volatilität. Auch die aus territorialen Streitigkeiten zwischen China und vielen seiner Nachbarn – darunter Japan, die Philippinen, Südkorea und Vietnam – herrührenden geopolitischen Risiken lässt die Liste unberücksichtigt.

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