Rizika a zisky na rozvíjejících se trzích

NEW YORK – Jedna z definic ekonomik rozvíjejících se trhů říká, že tamní politická rizika jsou vyšší a věrohodnost politik nižší než v ekonomikách vyspělých. Když si ekonomiky rozvíjejících se trhů po finanční krizi udržely robustní růst, tato definice se zdála překonaná; teď se vzhledem k nynějším turbulencím v rozvíjejících se ekonomikách, plynoucích dílem ze slabší věrohodnosti jejich hospodářských politik a z narůstající politické nejistoty, zdá stejně přiléhavá jako dřív.

Vezměme si takzvanou křehkou pětku: Indii, Indonésii, Turecko, Brazílii a Jižní Afriku. Všem jsou společné slabiny nejen v ekonomice a politikách (dvojí deficit, jak fiskální, tak na běžném účtu, zpomalující růst a rostoucí inflace, hlemýždí strukturální reformy), ale i letošní prezidentské či parlamentní volby. Politickému či společenskému znejistění a občanskému neklidu čelí i další rozvíjející se ekonomiky – Ukrajina, Argentina, Venezuela, Rusko, Maďarsko, Thajsko a Nigérie.

Tento seznam přitom nezahrnuje hrozivě nestabilní Blízký východ, kde se arabské jaro v Libyi a Egyptě proměnilo v zimu rozohněné nespokojenosti, občanská válka běsní v Sýrii a doutná v Jemenu a Irák, Írán, Afghánistán a Pákistán tvoří souvislý pás volatility. Nezahrnuje ani asijská geopolitická rizika vyplývající z územních sporů mezi Čínou a řadou jejích sousedů, včetně Japonska, Filipín, Jižní Koreje a Vietnamu.

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