Gauchos extorsionados

NUEVA YORK – Como ocurre a las personas, corporaciones y otras empresas privadas que dependen de los procedimientos de quiebra para reducir el peso excesivo de sus deudas, a veces los países necesitan reestructurarlas o reducirlas de manera ordenada. Pero la saga de la actual lucha legal de Argentina con los acreedores inflexibles (holdouts) demuestra que tal vez el sistema internacional para la reestructuración ordenada de la deuda soberana haya dejado de funcionar.

Las personas, empresas o gobiernos pueden sufrir excesos de deuda por mala suerte, malas decisiones, o una combinación de ambas. Si usted toma una hipoteca y pierde su empleo, tiene mala suerte. Si sus obligaciones resultan insostenibles porque se endeudó excesivamente para financiar unas largas vacaciones o comprar electrodomésticos caros, la causa es su mal comportamiento. Lo mismo puede decirse de las empresas: algunas tienen mala suerte y sus planes de negocios fracasan, mientras que otras se endeudan excesivamente para pagar demasiado a gerentes mediocres.

La mala suerte y el mal comportamiento (las malas políticas) también pueden conducir a cargas de deuda insostenibles para los gobiernos. Si los términos del intercambio para un país (el precio de sus exportaciones) se deterioran y persiste una gran recesión durante mucho tiempo, la base de ingresos de su gobierno puede reducirse y el peso de la deuda resultará excesivo. Pero una deuda insostenible también puede ser consecuencia de tomar créditos para gastar excesivamente, del fracaso a la hora de recaudar suficientes impuestos y de otras políticas que socavan el potencial de crecimiento de la economía.

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