¿Empezó el tercer round de la crisis europea?

BERKELEY – La crisis del euro puede dividirse en tres componentes; dos ya fueron enfrentados con éxito (al menos parcial): la crisis bancaria producto del exceso de apalancamiento simultáneo de los sectores público y privado; y el derrumbe de la confianza en los gobiernos de la eurozona que siguió a la crisis bancaria. Pero todavía queda un tercer elemento, el más peligroso y largo de resolver: el desequilibrio estructural entre el norte y el sur de la eurozona.

Empecemos por la mejor parte: el temor a que los bancos europeos entraran en bancarrota y que la huida de los inversores provocara una Gran Depresión Europea parece haber quedado atrás. También ha comenzado a disiparse el temor a que los gobiernos de la eurozona cayeran en cesación de pagos (con las mismas consecuencias terribles), temor debido enteramente a la disfuncionalidad política de la Unión Europea.

Evitar una depresión profunda dependía de que Europa respondiera correctamente a estos dos aspectos de la crisis. Pero que el conjunto de Europa no pierda décadas de crecimiento económico todavía está por verse y depende de solucionar ese desequilibrio, para lo cual es preciso que los gobiernos del sur recuperen la competitividad rápidamente.

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