Phase drei der Euro-Krise?

BERKELEY – Die ersten beiden Komponenten der Euro-Krise – eine Bankenkrise, die auf übermäßiger Kreditvergabe im öffentlichen und im privaten Sektor beruhte, gefolgt von einem steilen Verlust des Vertrauens in die Regierungen der Eurozone – wurden erfolgreich in Angriff genommen, zumindest zum Teil. Doch es bleibt noch der dritte, langfristigste und gefährlichste Faktor, der für die Krise mitverantwortlich ist: das strukturelle Ungleichgewicht zwischen dem Norden und dem Süden der Eurozone.

Zunächst die gute Nachricht: Die Angst, dass Europas Banken zusammenbrechen könnten und panische Investoren ihr Geld fluchtartig in Sicherheit bringen, was zu einer großen europäischen Depression führen würde, scheint nun vorbei zu sein. Ebenso verfliegt langsam die vollständig von der dysfunktionalen Politik der Europäischen Union ausgelöste Angst, einige Regierungen der Eurozone könnten zahlungsunfähig werden, was dieselben unheilvollen Folgen hätte.

Die Frage, ob Europa eine tiefe Depression vermeiden würde, hing davon ab, ob es diese beiden Aspekte der Krise richtig bewältigte. Doch ob Europa als Ganzes mehrere Jahrzehnte Wirtschaftswachstum verliert, ist immer noch unklar und hängt davon ab, ob es den südeuropäischen Regierungen gelingt, ihre Wettbewerbsfähigkeit schnell wiederherzustellen.

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