Třetí fáze krize eura?

BERKELEY – První dvě složky krize eura – bankovní krize, která byla důsledkem nadměrných investic za vypůjčené peníze ve veřejném i soukromém sektoru, a následný prudký pokles důvěry ve vlády eurozóny – se podařilo úspěšně nebo přinejmenším zčásti úspěšně vyřešit. Zbývá však třetí, nejdlouhodobější a nejnebezpečnější faktor v pozadí krize: strukturální nerovnováha mezi severem a jihem eurozóny.

Nejprve dobrá zpráva: strach, že by se evropské banky mohly zhroutit a úprk zpanikařených investorů do bezpečí by pak v Evropě vyvolal velkou hospodářskou krizi, již zřejmě pominul. Rozplývat se začala i obava, kterou rozdmýchala výlučně dysfunkční politika Evropské unie: totiž že vlády v eurozóně by mohly vyhlásit bankrot, což by vyvolalo neméně strašlivé důsledky.

Otázka, zda se Evropa vyhne hluboké depresi, závisela na tom, zda se náležitě vyrovná s těmito dvěma aspekty krize. Ve vzduchu se však stále vznáší otázka, vyhne-li se Evropa jako celek ztraceným dekádám hospodářského růstu – odpověď závisí na tom, zda jihoevropské vlády dokážou rychle obnovit konkurenceschopnost.

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