Управляя крахом Северной Кореи

ЛОС-АНДЖЕЛЕС – За последние несколько месяцев Северная Корея вновь продемонстрировала необыкновенное безрассудство. Во-первых, власти пригрозились провести новые ядерные испытания если ООН не отзовёт свою рекомендацию преследовать в судебном порядке руководителей страны за преступления против человечности в Международном Уголовном Суде. Кроме того, американские чиновники утверждают, что правительство установило подпольную кибератаку на Sony Pictures, якобы вопреки возражениям на фильм-фарс «The Interview», который изображает попытку покушения на лидера Северной Кореи Ким Чен Ына. Затем, в еще одном мелодраматическом повороте, Ким предложил, в своей Новогодней речи, возобновить переговоры с Южной Кореей.

Очевидно, действия правительства Кима заслуживают рассмотрения. Но они не должны отвлекать внимание от реальных рисков на Корейском полуострове: неопределенная хватка Кима за власть и опасности, которые могут быть развязаны если его власть рухнет. На самом деле, ни один из ключевых стратегических игроков региона – Китай, США и Южная Корея - не кажется надлежащим образом подготовленным к такому сценарию.

Это необходимо изменить. А важнее всего пересмотреть то давнее предположение, что США должны взять на себя инициативу в ответ на происходящие события в Северной Корее.

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