管理朝鲜的崩溃

洛杉矶—在过去几个月中,朝鲜再次表现出极大的鲁莽。首先,朝鲜政府威胁如果联合国不撤销其关于在国际刑事法院起诉朝鲜领导人反人类罪的建议,朝鲜就要进行更多的核试验。此外,美国官员声称朝鲜政府对索尼影业公司(Sony Pictures)发动了秘密网络袭击,相信目的是为了反对一部低俗喜剧《采访》(The Interview)。该片以刺杀朝鲜领导人金正恩的故事为基础。接着,金正恩又故作姿态,在其新年讲话中表示要重启与韩国的对话。

金氏政权的行为显然值得深思。但不应该因为它们而将注意力从朝鲜半岛的真正风险上移开:金正恩权力不稳以及在金氏政权倒台时出现的危险。事实上,该地区的重要战略行动方——中国、美国和韩国似乎都没有为这一情形做好准备。

这需要改变。关键是,美国应该领导对朝鲜局势变化的应对方案这一长期存在的假定也需要重新考虑。

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