Paul Lachine

Keine Zeit für einen Handelskrieg

NEW YORK – Der Kampf der Vereinigten Staaten um Chinas Wechselkurs hält an. Als die Große Rezession begann, befürchteten viele, der Protektionismus würde sein hässliches Haupt wieder erheben. Viele G-20-Staaten beteuerten zwar, sie hätten aus der Großen Depression gelernt. Aber 17 der 20 Mitgliedsstaaten haben nur wenige Monate nach dem ersten Gipfeltreffen im November 2008 protektionistische Maßnahmen eingeführt. Die Devise „kauft amerikanisch“, die als Vorschrift im Konjunkturpaket der amerikanischen Regierung enthalten war, hat die meiste Aufmerksamkeit erregt. Trotzdem konnte der Protektionismus eingedämmt werden, teilweise dank der Welthandelsorganisation.

Die anhaltende wirtschaftliche Schwäche in den entwickelten Volkswirtschaften birgt das Risiko einer neuen Protektionismus-Runde. In Amerika zum Beispiel findet einer von sechs Arbeitssuchenden keinen Vollzeitjob.

Dies war eines der Risiken in Zusammenhang mit dem unzureichenden Konjunkturpaket, das einerseits Kongressabgeordnete beschwichtigen und andererseits die Wirtschaft ankurbeln sollte. Angesichts der hohen Defizite erscheint ein zweites Paket unwahrscheinlich, und da die Geldpolitik an ihre Grenzen gekommen ist und die Inflationsfalken kaum gebändigt werden können, gibt es auch aus der Abteilung wenig Hoffnung auf Hilfe. Das heißt, es bleibt nur noch der Protektionismus.

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