AFP/ Stringer

中国会重蹈日本的覆辙吗?

发自纽黑文——尽管外界对中国经济的忧虑日益加深,该国却并不会滑向“失落的十年”那样的日本式停滞。不过令人担忧的不确定性依然笼罩着这一判断。日本的命运源自于它不愿放弃一个已经无法正常运行的增长模式。虽然中国采纳结构性再平衡改革的举措将自身与日本区分了开来,但它必须奋力实施这一战略。要么改革成功,要么落得和日本一样的结局。

同样的结论也出现在我于耶鲁大学教授了六年的《日本的教训》课程上。该课程基本上属于一门法证宏观经济学(forensic macroeconomics)课程——从现代日本经济的兴衰中提炼一些核心经验教训,然后找出那些教训与其他主要经济体的相关性。

在课程结束时学生都要提交研究论文去评估哪些候选国可能成为下一个日本。2012年是美国是首选,因为它正努力在2008年金融大危机的余震中站稳脚跟;到2013年则不出意外地转移到遭危机重创的欧洲;而今年却有一半以上的学生(23人中的13位)在研讨会选择研究中国是否会成为下一个日本。

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