Nigerias Weg in den Untergang

Angesichts der enormen politischen Spannungen im Iran und Irak ist es leicht, die zunehmende Unruhe in Nigeria, dem achtgrößten Ölexporteur der Welt, zu übersehen. Aber Nigerias wachsende soziale und politische Probleme lassen erkennen, wie Gewalt und Unsicherheit in einem weiteren wichtigen Energie produzierenden Land ausländische Investoren vertreiben und die weltweiten Energiepreise in die Höhe schrauben.

Der nigerianische Präsident Olusegun Obasanjo scheint versuchen zu wollen, die Verfassung des Landes zu ändern, um sich eine Chance auf eine dritte Amtszeit zu eröffnen. Zu diesem Zweck hat er viele seiner politischen Rivalen an den Rand gedrängt. Vizepräsident Atiku Abubakar – ein wahrscheinlicher Aspirant bei den Präsidentschaftswahlen 2007 – wurde schikaniert und isoliert. Minister, die verdächtigt werden, nicht 100% loyal zu sein, werden marginalisiert.

Allerdings haben sich Obasanjos Gegner in den Kampf eingeschaltet, und dem Präsidenten fehlt sowohl im Bundesparlament wie unter den Einzelstaaten die erforderliche Zweidrittelmehrheit, um sich über das nächste Jahr hinaus an der Macht zu halten. Zwei ehemalige nigerianische Präsidenten, die Generäle Muhammadu Buhari und Ibrahim Babangida, treten öffentlich gegen Obasanjos Eingriff in die Verfassung ein, und eine Reihe von Gouverneuren aus den von Muslimen dominierten nördlichen Bundesstaaten Nigerias haben ihre Entschlossenheit, Obasanjo nach Ablauf seiner Amtszeit in 2007 loszuwerden, klar zum Ausdruck gebracht.

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