Le chemin du Nigeria vers le désastre

Il y a tant de frictions politiques en Iran et en Irak que les marchés ont vite fait d’oublier les troubles émergents au Nigeria, huitième puissance mondiale exportatrice de pétrole. Or, la montée des problèmes politiques et sociaux au Nigeria révèle combien la violence et l’incertitude dans un des plus importants pays producteurs d’énergie éloignent les investisseurs étrangers et font grimper les prix du pétrole.

Le président nigérian Olusegun Obasanjo est sur le point d’amender la constitution du pays pour s’offrir la possibilité d’un troisième mandat présidentiel. Il a marginalisé nombreux de ses rivaux politiques pour parvenir à ses fins. Le vice-président Atiku Abubakar – un aspirant potentiel à la présidence en 2007 – a été harcelé et isolé. Les ministres soupçonnés du moindre manque de loyauté ont été mis sur la touche.

Toutefois, les adversaires d’Obasanjo ont rejoint la bataille et le président ne dispose pas de la majorité nécessaire des deux tiers aux élections fédérales et nationales pour rester au pouvoir l’an prochain. Deux anciens présidents nigérians, les Généraux Muhammadu Buhari et Ibrahim Babangida, s’opposent publiquement à l’ingérence constitutionnelle d’Obasanjo. En outre, de nombreux gouverneurs des états du Nord à domination musulmane ont clairement signifié leur volonté de voir Obasanjo quitter le pouvoir à la fin de son mandat en 2007.

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