Globalizar a la Fed

OXFORD –  ¿Debería Estados Unidos preocuparse sobre si su política monetaria está causando estragos en los países emergentes y en desarrollo (EMDCs, por sus siglas en inglés)? Esta fue la pregunta que enfrentó la Reserva Federal en el momento cúspide de su programa de flexibilización cuantitativa, cuando sus compras mensuales de activos a largo plazo impulsaron a inversores hambrientos de rendimiento hacia los EMDCs, haciendo que  aumenten los precios de las monedas y de los activos de dichos países. Esta interrogante continúa siendo apremiante hoy, momento en el que la Fed está por finalizar sus compras de activos, lo que lleva a la reversión de los flujos de capital que se dirigían hacia los EMDCs,  y a su vez deja plantados a muchos de estos países.

Contrariamente a lo que la mayoría de los observadores parecen creer, la respuesta no está en el escrutinio del mandato de la Reserva Federal o en el debate sobre las acciones tomadas por los responsables políticos de los países en desarrollo. El tema se centra en la pregunta sobre si EE.UU. desea ser líder en la economía global, y en caso afirmativo, cómo desea alcanzar esto. Si EE.UU. quiere preservar un orden financiero mundial estable  y abierto, no puede permitirse el lujo de ignorar las actuales turbulencias en los mercados emergentes.

Desde que el año pasado se empezó a hablar de la “disminución” en el nivel de la flexibilización cuantitativa, un número creciente de EMDCs  han sentido presión: sus monedas se deprecian, los capitales salen, y sus bancos centrales quedan con la nada envidiable tarea de combatir una desaceleración del crecimiento interno, mientras que al mismo tiempo tienen que mantener la estabilidad externa. La incipiente recuperación en las economías avanzadas parece estar encendiendo una inestabilidad generalizada, que se extiende desde Argentina a Turquía y a la India.

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