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发自剑桥—现在预测新型冠状病毒疫情的长期发展轨迹还为时过早，但意识到下一次全球衰退可能即将降临就已经不算太早了——而且这次的衰退看似与2001年和2008年开始的那两次大有不同。
首先，下一次衰退很可能发端于中国，而且事实上可能已经在发生了。作为一个杠杆率很高的经济体，中国无法像高速增长的1980年代日本那样承受长期的经济停摆，因为个人，企业和市政当局都需要资金来偿还其超额债务。而严重不利的人口结构状况，技术追赶差距的缩窄以及周期性刺激计划所导致的大量房屋过剩（更别提日益集权化的决策过程）已经预示着未来十年中国的经济增长将会显著放缓。
此外，与本世纪前两次全球性经济衰退不同，2019新型冠状病毒疫情同时引发了供给和需求两端的冲击。事实上上次出现同等规模的冲击还得追溯到1970年代中期的石油供应危机。虽然对传染的忧虑将打击航空公司和全球旅游业需求，同时预防性储蓄也会增加。但当数以千万计的人（出于封锁或是恐惧）无法上班，全球价值链崩溃，边界被封锁，世界贸易也因各国不信任彼此的健康统计数据而出现萎缩之时，供给侧也会受到同样巨大的损害。
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