Nuevo año y la misma crisis

DAVOS – Las medidas adoptadas por el Banco Central Europeo el pasado mes de diciembre, en particular la Operación de Refinanciación a Largo Plazo (ORLP), han aliviado los problemas de liquidez de los bancos europeos, pero no han eliminado la desventaja financiera de los Estados miembros sumamente endeudados. Como las primas de alto riesgo relativas a los bonos estatales ponen en peligro los niveles de capital de los bancos, una solución a medias no basta.

De hecho, esa supuesta solución deja la mitad de la zona del euro relegada a la condición de países del Tercer Mundo que han quedado profundamente endeudados en una divisa extranjera. En lugar del Fondo Monetario Internacional, es Alemania la que está adoptando una actitud implacable, al imponerles una rígida disciplina fiscal, lo que provocará tensiones económicas y políticas que podrían destruir la Unión Europea.

Yo he propuesto un plan que permitiría a Italia y España refinanciar su deuda emitiendo letras del Tesoro con un interés de un uno por ciento, aproximadamente. Le he puesto el nombre que lleva en memoria de mi amigo Tomasso Padoa-Schioppa, que, como banquero central de Italia en el decenio de 1990, contribuyó a estabilizar la hacienda del país. Se trata de un plan bastante complicado, pero es legal y técnicamente correcto. Lo describo en detalle en mi nuevo libro Financial Turmoil in Europe and the United States (“La agitación financiera en Europa y los Estados Unidos”).

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