Paul Lachine

La dette publique menace la reprise

PALO ALTO – L'économie américaine et l'économie mondiale se redressent, mais de graves questions restent en suspens quant à la vigueur et à l'avenir de la reprise. Au-delà des préoccupations liées au cycle des affaires, un grand nombre de facteurs politiques menacent la croissance - notamment le protectionnisme, les tensions sur les devises, les stratégies de sortie des plans de relance monétaires et budgétaires et l'explosion de la dette publique.

Après une forte récession la reprise est généralement forte ; l'économie américaine a redémarré après les deux grosses récessions de l'après-guerre avec un taux de croissance réel supérieur à 6% par an durant trois ans. Mais aujourd'hui personne ne prévoit une croissance aussi forte, car après une crise financière la reprise est habituellement lente et difficile.

Pour justifier l'intervention massive de l’Etat, les hommes politiques comparent la récession actuelle à la Grande dépression des années 1930. Mais il faut se souvenir de la véritable dimension de cette crise. Entre 1929 et 1933, le PIB des USA a chuté de 30% et le taux de chômage n'était pas loin de 25%, quant à la dépression elle-même, elle a duré plus de 10 ans. Autrement dit c'était une crise beaucoup plus grave que celle d'aujourd'hui et plus grave que celle, bien plus sévère, que l'intervention a permis d'éviter.

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