Paul Lachine

Новые правила для «горячих денег»

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. Потоки капитала в развивающиеся страны уже десятилетиями кружатся на карусели бумов и кризисов. В прошлом году мир стал свидетелем очередного бума: на развивающиеся страны нахлынуло цунами капитала, портфеля акций и инвестиций с фиксированным доходом, что, как считается, имеет под собой сильные макроэкономические, политические и финансовые основания.

Подобные вливания частично порождаются кратковременными цикличными факторами (различия в процентных ставках и стена ликвидности позволяют «охотиться» за более прибыльными активами, по мере того как политика нулевых ставок и расширение количественных послаблений сокращают возможности медлительной экономики развитых стран). Но долговременные постоянно действующие факторы также играют роль. К подобным факторам относятся долговременные различия в уровне экономического роста между развивающимися и развитыми странами, более сильная склонность инвесторов разнообразить свои инвестиции с помощью выхода на зарубежные рынки, а также ожидание долговременного номинального и действительного роста курсов валют развивающихся стран.

Учитывая всё это, важнейший политический вопрос для развивающихся стран сегодня заключается в том, как реагировать на приток капитала, который неизбежно разгонит их валютные курсы и поставит под угрозу основанный на экспорте экономический рост.

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