Dancer on stilts Sia-Kambou/Stringer/Getty Images

高跷上的非常规货币政策

纽约—2008年金融危机以来,大部分发达经济体复苏无力,它们的央行被迫从常规货币政策——通过公开市场购买短期政府债券降低政策利率——转向各种非常规政策。尽管名义利率已经到达零区间——此前这只是一种理论可能——并实施了零利率政策(ZIRP),但增长依然无力。因此,央行采取了一些十年前尚不再其工具箱中的措施。现在,它们也需要再次祭出这些工具。

非常规手段清单很长。有量化宽松(QE),即在短期利率已经为零的情况下购买长期政府债券。与它搭配实施的有信用宽松(CE),其形式为央行购买私人或准私人资产——如按揭和其他抵押证券、有担保债券、公司债券、房地产信托基金甚至通过交易所交易基金购买股票。其目的是降低私人信用利差(期限相近的私人资产和政府债券之间的收益率之差)并直接或间接地提振股票和房地产等风险资产的价格。

还有“前瞻指引”(FG),即承诺保持零利率政策直到经济基本面恢复之后,从而进一步降低较短期利率。比如,承诺保持零政策利率(比如)三年意味着期限三年以下的证券的利率应该也降低到零,因为中期利率是基于未来三年的短期利率的预期决定的。最后,还有无冲销货币市场干预以实现货币贬值从而提振出口。

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