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الاستراتيجية الخاصة بروسيا والتي تحتاجها أوروبا

Feb 19, 2021 Mark Leonard

برلين-بعد عقود من الحرب الباردة، ما تزال روسيا العدو بكل ما تعنيه هذه الكلمة من معنى مع قدرة لا مثيل لها على اثارة غضب الطبقة السياسية في أوروبا ولكن حدة المناقشات والمشاعر الأوروبية تجاه روسيا تخفي زيادة التوافق والذي يعكس مقاربة جديدة تجاه نظام الرئيس فلاديمير بوتين.

في منتصف العقد الأول من الألفية الثالثة كان الأوروبيون منقسمون بشكل عميق فيما يتعلق بالعلاقات مع روسيا فألمانيا بقيادة المستشار آنذاك غيرهارد شرويدر كانت تريد التواصل معها بينما سعت دول وسط وشرق أوروبا الى الاحتواء وفي الظاهر فإن مناقشات اليوم المتعلقة بنورد ستريم 2 وهو خط انابيب مثير للجدل سوف ينقل الغاز الروسي بشكل مباشر لألمانيا واضطهاد الكرملين لزعيم المعارضة الروسية اليكسي نافالني يبدو انها أمور تعزز من ذلك الانقسام القديم ولكن الواقع مختلف تماما.

لم يعد لدى أوروبا أي أوهام بإن روسيا تسير باتجاه ديمقراطية ليبرالية والتي يمكن تسريعها من خلال التواصل معها كما انتهت فكرة إن الدول التي تستهدفها روسيا هي في ورطة بسبب التصرفات المستفزة لتلك الدول.

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Henk Crop Feb 22, 2021

To me this strategy looks much like the continuation of the Cold War.
There was an opportunity to normalise relations with Russia twenty years ago.
However the West tried to take advantage of the weak position Russia was in at the time and blew it ( see also PS May 2019, by Orenstein. The Russians are coming )
You can devise a "principled indifference" or any other feature.
However Russia is no small country and sooner or later you will meet them again.
The Europeans have a tendency to assume they are always right and morally superior, which has led to a deterioration of relations. Therefore it was no surprise that Borrell was not welcomed as the great big friend from the EU.

When I read about the attention that is being given in the EU about a possible by Russia, I am much surprised by the lack of attention that is given to threats from the South.
A never ending flow of illegal immigrants, often Moslims, which are not stopped or returned. It seems EU leaders are more interested to addressing the threats of the past than the threats of to-morrow.
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j. von Hettlingen Feb 21, 2021

As EU foreign ministers convene to-morrow, Mark Leonard says they must devise a strategy to deal with Russia. In the past ten years, the EU and the US “have alternated between phases of engagement and confrontation with Russia.” The recent humiliating visit to Moscow by Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, “was just the latest in a long list of failed attempts at resetting relations and seeking deeper cooperation with Russia."
Borell’s ill-fated trip “leaves no doubt about the Kremlin’s lack of appetite for such efforts,” and one hopes that the political fallout will accelerate a much-needed progress toward developing a coherent policy. To start with, the EU needs to get its act together and improve transatlantic “coordination” on Russia. The EU’s “unilateral outreach” to the Kremlin had not paid off - it was disastrous, undermining the EU’s standing in both Moscow and Washington.
The author says, Putin “does not have time on his side. If the EU responds firmly and unemotionally to the Russian president’s aggression, it should be able to contain his malign influence without aiding his attempts to… label Navalny as a foreign agent. Paradoxically, the best way for European leaders to nurture an appetite for constructive engagement in the Kremlin is to seem less desperate for it. Let Putin come to them.” This may be easier said than done.
Unlike China, Russia is an economic dwarf, but it is still capable of being a geopolitical spoiler par excellence. According to the author, the EU “should thus be in no hurry either to engage with Putin’s regime or to force a diplomatic crisis. Instead, it should deprive Putin of the one thing he craves: political attention. So, rather than vacillating between resets and crackdowns, the EU should pursue an alternative approach. Call it ‘principled indifference’ or ‘tough engagement.’”
The problem is that Putin needs a scapegoat to distract the Russians from his country’s faltering economy. Sanctions imposed by the West in 2014 and later, as a result of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and malign activities have actually played into the hands of the regime. For the Kremlin, they confirmed that the West ultimately seeks to weaken Russia. Sanctions are said to be part of a larger strategy to bring about a regime change in Russia, and state-controlled media sustains Putin’s ambition to restore Russia’s past glory.
With falling incomes and declining living standards, many Russians have to tighten their belts and accept the cutbacks in healthcare, education and pensions amid rising inflation. These grievances have fueled Navalny’s protests. Stagnant oil prices meant that Russia has less money and attention to spare for Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, or Armenia, constratining Russia’s foreign policy. Yet Western sanctions in the past had not reined in Russia’s expansionism overseas, meddling in other countries’ elections, dissemination of disinformation, assassination of dissidents abroad etc.
The author says, the EU “should nonetheless respond forcefully to any Kremlin provocations and aggression. In addition, member states should start investing in military and security partnerships with countries like Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, and decouple such initiatives from the issue of NATO enlargement. The EU could also engage Turkey in a dialogue on Russia and Black Sea security issues.”
When it comes to defending Russia’s backyard, Putin is fighting tooth and nail. As long as he does not ditch his expansionist policy of imperial nationalism, Europe is not safe from Russian aggression.
Indeed, regardless of the threats the Kremlin poses under Putin, the EU should by no means "avoid dialogue with Russia. But this is best reserved for multilateral forums such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe or the Arctic Council. Discussions with Russia – whether on climate change, vaccines, or visas – should be technocratic, without the diplomatic fanfare or emotion that have characterized recent attempted openings."
Sadly, ordinary Russians who want to see the back of Putin have to risk their lives, hoping to see their dream come true. People like Alexei Navalny will be forever remembered for their courage.
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Leo Arouet Feb 20, 2021

I think that EU should undermine the Putin's power and put pipeline Nord Stream 2 in stand bye.
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Elizabeth Pula Feb 19, 2021

Shoot for "principled engagement" in the narratives to focus on actually creating some positive results sooner rather than later, especially without excessive kills of any body.
- Bernhard Kopp Feb 20, 2021
  
  The most interesting part of the NS-2 critics is that they are totally silent about there willingness and ability to pay the enforceable claims for damages to Gazprom, and all the European energy companies involved in the project. My guess is that one would be ready to pay anywhere dear € 15 - 20 billion. Pacta sunt servanda.
  - Elizabeth Pula Feb 20, 2021
    
    Good point. Of course there are all kinds of: failure to complete, fund, pay as agreed in the contract per specific milestones, probably especially the very first payment. Germany needs more than one "gas" provider. The EU needs more than one fuel source especially when alternative one fails, or alternative two fails etc. regardless of cause and when.
    
    The real problem will reveal itself when(NOT IF) there is a catastrophic cyber-security event when regardless of who perpetrated the nefarious code, nothing, and I do mean absolutely nothing works for any one to get water out of the faucet, poop into the sewers, and potable water into their gut to preamble and me-amble through to another tomorrow whenever that may be.
    
    What's most important is who has control over the most critical and important one way flow valves, and high-pressure valves to control any flow of any gas anywhere. Don't give any rights to "ACCESS" away especially once whatever gas is flowing is in the pipelines at certain border points, and crossings.
    
    A lot of people need to start addressing a lot of .doc files, crossing their "t's", watching their "i's", and making sure the final docs make sense for the citizens at specific locations ASAP, like yesterday. Don't hold up progress. Don't get fooled either.
    
    Set priorities. Budget accordingly. Recognize that a variety of fuel options are necessary at all times. You never know what is going to shut down, especially when, where or how.
    
    Prime example: Texas week of Feb,08,2021 and aftermath.
    
    If any one thinks its hunky dory to jackup utility bills on a homewner-wannabe into the thousands+ just because the corporate entity can get away with it, just ain't thinking right. That is exactly the privatization stakeholder scenario that the good ole dummies in Texas are getting a good lesson all about first hand. Cruz needs to be shoved out the door on his ugly you know what. Is the EU ahead or behind in that game? Who is the real winner?
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الاستراتيجية الخاصة بروسيا والتي تحتاجها أوروبا

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الاستراتيجية الخاصة بروسيا والتي تحتاجها أوروبا

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