El peligroso sueño afgano de la OTAN

NUEVA DELHI – El acuerdo en la cumbre de la OTAN celebrada en Lisboa sobre el plan de transición para contribuir a poner fin a la guerra en el Afganistán en los cuatro próximos años plantea cuestiones preocupantes sobre la seguridad regional y la lucha mundial contra el terrorismo transnacional. A medida que los Estados Unidos y otros socios de la coalición vayan reduciendo gradualmente su participación en los combates, las fuerzas afganas de seguridad, que ascenderán a 300.000 soldados después de que los nuevos reclutas reciban una formación intensiva, ocuparán su lugar, pero no es probable que esas fuerzas locales puedan mantener unido el país.

La situación más probable después de la guerra es una división del Afganistán, en la que los talibanes dirijan el cotarro en las zonas meridional y oriental, dominadas por los pashtunes, y las regiones septentrional y occidental, sin etnia pashtún, conserven su actual autonomía de facto.

Es probable que a escala regional haya una mayor agitación. La retirada de las fuerzas de la OTAN antes de que hayan cumplido su misión dejará a la India en primera línea para afrontar el grueso de un terror mayor procedente del cinturón Afganistán-Pakistán. De hecho, se espera que la retirada de la OTAN envalentone a los yijadistas de la región –y allende sus límites– para lanzar ataques transnacionales.

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