Afghanistan : l'OTAN se trompe !

NEW DELHI – Lors du sommet de l'OTAN à Lisbonne, les pays membres ont annoncé un plan de transition destiné à mettre fin à la guerre en Afghanistan au cours des quatre ans à venir. Or ce plan soulève des questions inquiétantes quant à la sécurité régionale et à la lutte contre le terrorisme transnational. Les USA et leurs alliés au sein de la coalition interviennent de moins en moins dans les combats. Mais les forces de sécurité afghanes qui doivent les remplacer (elles doivent atteindre 300 000 hommes après la formation en urgence de nouvelles recrues) ne seront sans doute pas capables de maintenir l'unité du pays.

Le scénario d'après-guerre le plus probable est une partition de l'Afghanistan, avec les régions du sud et de l'est à majorité pachtoune sous la coupe des talibans, celles du nord et de l'ouest conservant l'autonomie dont elles disposent de fait aujourd'hui.

La région sera encore plus instable. Le retrait des forces de l'OTAN avant qu'elles n'aient achevé leur mission laissera l'Inde en première ligne face à la menace terroriste de la ceinture Afghanistan-Pakistan et va probablement encourager les jihadistes de la région (et au-delà) à mener des actions terroristes transnationales.

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