下一个贸易突破

斯坦福—放眼全球,看不到经济方面的好消息。今年的产出增长令人失望,国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测2015年也只能由略微的改善。欧洲也许正在滑向衰退,就连曾经坚挺的德国经济也在悬崖边上摇摇欲坠。中国在走下坡路,巴西、俄罗斯和印度也在竭力避免停滞。

因此,三个来自贸易自由化的增长机会被忽视着实令人遗憾。这三个机会是世界贸易组织多哈发展回合、亚太地区的跨太平洋合作伙伴关系(Trans-Pacific Partnership,TTP)以及美国和欧洲之间的跨大西洋贸易和投资合作伙伴关系(TTIP)。如果设计合理,所有这三个机会都有可能刺激全球增长。通过降低关税和非关税壁垒、知识产权保护和监管协调,讲能产生数千亿美元的产出——外加数百万收入更高的工作。

这是今年迎来20周年纪念的北美自由贸易协定(North American Free Trade Agreement,NAFTA)给我们的教训。在我所编辑的《北美自由贸易协定而十年》(NAFTA at 20)一书中,决策者和学者解释了这一里程碑式的贸易条约如何为我们示范了贸易自由的好处——以及为何政治领袖应该追求贸易自由。

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