Mubaraks illegitime Schulden

NEW YORK: Ein Blick auf Ägyptens öffentliche Finanzen zeigt eine verstörende Tatsache: Die Zinsen, die das Land auf seine Auslandskredite zahlt, sind höher als die Haushaltsposten für Bildung, Gesundheit und Wohnungsbau zusammen. Tatsächlich machen diese Kosten für den Schuldendienst allein 22% der gesamten ägyptischen Staatsausgaben aus.

Die Auswirkungen sind inzwischen nicht mehr zu ignorieren. Angesichts wachsender politischer Unsicherheit und einer sich verlangsamenden Konjunktur dürften auf Ägypten sinkende Staatseinnahmen, zunehmende Forderungen nach Notausgaben und steigende Zinsen für die staatlichen Kredite zukommen. Dies könnte eine Haushaltskatastrophe herbeiführen – und zwar genau zu dem Zeitpunkt, an dem das Land eine komplizierte politische Übergangsphase zu bewältigen hat.

Ägyptens Staatsschuld beläuft sich auf etwa 80% vom BIP und liegt also sehr nahe an dem Niveau von 90%, das laut den Ökonomen Kenneth Rogoff und Carmen Reinhart niedrigeres Wachstum und eine verstärkte Anfälligkeit gegenüber Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrisen bringt. Die Ägypter brauchen nur einen Blick gen Norden – auf die europäische Schuldenkrise – zu werfen, um zu begreifen, dass sie ihr Schuldenproblem jetzt lösen müssen, statt zu warten, bis es griechische Ausmaße annimmt.

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