Superar la crisis de México

Mientras continúa la crisis sobre las discutidas elecciones presidenciales de México, se están formulando preguntas no sólo sobre la conducta del candidato aparentemente derrotado, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, sino también sobre el sistema presidencial de México. ¿Será parte del problema el "presidencialismo" tal como se practica en México?

Felipe Calderón, del gobernante partido de centro-derecha, el Partido de Acción Nacional (PAN), encabeza actualmente el recuento de votos, que se ha de confirmar en septiembre. Las próximas elecciones presidenciales previstas no se celebrarán hasta 2012, como las elecciones al Senado, cuya conformidad es necesaria para la aprobación de la mayor parte de la legislación. Así, Calderón y los aliados de su partido, con el 41 por ciento de los escaños del Senado, nunca podrá tener una mayoría durante su mandato de seis años y también estará en minoría en la cámara baja, en la que el PAN cuenta sólo con el 43 por ciento de los escaños, hasta al menos 2009.

Si las protestas callejeras y las impugnaciones legales que está organizando López Obrador salen adelante, éste estará en una posición aún más débil. El Partido Revolucionario Democrático (PRD) de centro izquierda de López Obrador, junto con partidos pequeños aliados, cuenta con el 31 por ciento del Senado y un poco menos de una tercera parte de la cámara baja. Eso quiere decir que durante los tres primeros años de una presidencia llegada al poder en medio de grandes exigencias populares, López Obrador podría promulgar poca legislación sobre reformas. Además, ni siquiera podría vetar una legislación hostil, porque sería el primer presidente de la historia moderna de México que no contaría en al menos una de las cámaras legislativas con la tercera parte de los escaños necesaria para apoyar un veto presidencial.

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