Tim Brinton

Las finanzas arriesgadas de China

PEKÍN – En los próximos años, el gobierno de China tendrá que enfrentarse a desafíos importantes para lograr un crecimiento económico estable, inclusivo y sostenible. Sin embargo, ya que los riesgos fiscales y financieros están en aumento y amenazan con descarrilar los esfuerzos de las autoridades, ellas deben actuar con rapidez para diseñar e implementar políticas prudentes y con visión de futuro.

La amenaza más importante de mediano y largo plazo a la situación fiscal de China se encuentra en el sistema de garantías implícitas que el gobierno central ha establecido con relación a las deudas de los gobiernos locales. A raíz de la crisis financiera mundial, los gobiernos locales se prestaron grandes cantidades de fondos de los bancos para apoyar el masivo programa de estímulo de China, acumulando una deuda por un valor de 10,7 millones de millones de yuanes (¥) (1,7 millones de millones de dólares estadounidenses) en el año 2011.

Los líderes de China esperan controlar los posibles riesgos derivados de los vehículos de inversión de los gobiernos locales (VIGL) mediante la limitación de los préstamos bancarios. El saldo de los préstamos bancarios a los VIGL sólo aumentó ligeramente el 2012, a ¥9,3 millones de millones, desde un nivel de ¥9,1 millones de millones en el año 2011. Asimismo, la Comisión de Regulación Bancaria de China ha pedido a los bancos retener los cupos de préstamos VIGL del año pasado para que los mismos sean desembolsados el año 2013; además, esta medida tiene el fin de garantizar que el saldo global de los préstamos a VIGL no exceda la cifra total de finales del año 2011.

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