价格悖论

伦敦—1923年,凯恩斯提出了一个至今仍有意义的经济学基本问题:“通货膨胀和通货紧缩是不恰当的,” 他写道,“在这两个东西中,也许通缩……更加糟糕;因为引起失业比令食租者失望……更糟糕。但我们未必需要两劣相权。”

这一观点的逻辑似乎无懈可击。因为许多合同在你货币条件上“刚性”的(即不容易修改),所以通胀和通缩都会给经济造成伤害。物价上升减少储蓄和退休金的价值,而物价下跌减少利润预期、鼓励囤积、增加债务的实际负担。

凯恩斯的观点已成为货币政策的圭臬(这也是他流传下来的少数思想之一)。根据传统智慧,政府应该将目标定在稳定物价,略着重于通胀,以刺激商人和购物者的“动物精神”。

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