Oil painting of fire.

中东崩溃和全球风险

纽约—在当今地缘政治风险中,没有比从马格里布一直延伸到阿富汗-巴基斯坦边境的漫长动荡地带更大的了。阿拉伯之春的记忆已经渐行渐远,但这一地带的动荡正在加深。事实上,在率先爆发阿拉伯之春的三个国家中,利比亚已成为失败之国,埃及恢复了极权统治,而突尼斯正在因为恐怖袭击而出现经济和政治动荡。

北非的暴力与动荡目前正在蔓延到撒哈拉以南非洲,撒舍尔——全世界最贫穷、环境破坏最严重的地区之一——已落入了圣战者的控制之中,此外他们还在向非洲之角渗透。而与利比亚一样,伊拉克、叙利亚、也门和索马里内战肆虐,朝着失败之国越陷越深。

该地区的动荡(美国及其盟友在寻求推翻伊拉克、利比亚、叙利亚、埃及和其他政权时也起到了推波助澜的作用)还在破坏一些此前安全的国家。来自叙利亚和伊拉克的难民的涌入正在动摇约旦、黎巴嫩甚至土耳其。在总统埃尔多安统治下,土耳其正变得日益极权。与此同时,以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突仍未解决,加沙的哈马斯和黎巴嫩的真主党都是与以色列暴力对抗的长期威胁。

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