Michael Spence Rebooting China  consumption and economic growth WorldFish/Flickr

重启中国增长

发自米兰——尽管外界对中国经济减速多有议论,但年度GDP增长依然超过了7%,暗示着——至少目前来说——还没有什么要拉响警报的。不过问题在于政府在经济结构改革和增长模式转型方面的努力是否凑效——也就是说,内部失衡状况是否依然在威胁长期经济表现。考虑到中国依然是全球经济最重要的增长引擎,这个问题的答案对大家来都利益攸关。

评估中国经济的稳定性需要考虑到影响该国的冲突和矛盾状况——两者都不会对增长的动力有所推动。首先,中国与周边许多邻国(包括日本,越南和菲律宾)的领土纠纷正不断威胁区域稳定,更别提对经济一体化的影响了。

此外,由于美国的外交政策“轴心”向亚洲移动以及网络安全方面的纷争,中美关系正在恶化。中国已经禁止向一些驻美科技企业开放市场,而且这类行动今后将屡见不鲜。

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