Cosa Blocca una Solida Ripresa?

MILANO – La mappa della crescita dell’economia globale è relativamente chiara. Gli Stati Uniti sono in parziale ripresa, con una crescita del 1.5-2% ed un’occupazione ristagnante. L’Europa nel suo insieme è appena sopra la crescita zero, con notevoli variazioni tra i paesi, anche se con qualche segno di dolorosa ri-convergenza, almeno in termini di costo unitario del lavoro nominale. La crescita della Cina, nel frattempo, si mantiene stabile al 7 %, con gli altri paesi in via di sviluppo che si preparano a tassi di interesse più elevati.

Molte economie avanzate devono ancora affrontare la fine del modello di crescita precedente alla crisi, generata da un eccesso di domanda interna. In tali economie, generalmente quel modello non si è basato solo sulla leva finanziaria; ma ha anche comportato l’ampliamento del lato non-commerciale dell’economia e la riduzione di quello commerciale. E tuttavia, dato che il settore non-commerciale è vincolato dalla sua dipendenza dalla domanda interna, la ripresa -se arriva- dipenderà dal potenziale di crescita del settore commerciale.

Per realizzare questo potenziale, il settore commerciale deve ri-espandersi al margine: dato che un indebolimento della valuta determina la caduta delle importazioni, e i costi unitari reali del lavoro diminuiscono non appena i salari nominali si livellano, la manodopera disoccupata ed i capitali confluiscono verso i mercati esterni per beni, servizi, e risorse.

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