西班牙的教益

发自米兰——西班牙经济正逐渐引发投资者的关注——不仅是因为当前形势下地产价格低迷(这对长期价值投资者来说意味着一个良好的买入点)。虽然仍需克服众多严峻问题,但明显感觉当地经济大约在今年初已经经过了一个拐点。

怀疑论者认为,如果无法接通信贷渠道,复苏的春天也不会到来,但该渠道仍然在许多银行资产负债表的受损之下陷于停滞。虽然恢复全面就业和可持续增长的道路不会一蹴而就,但进展可能超出大多数观察家的预计。

人们很容易迷失在复苏模式的细节之中,因此建立健全的潜在增长评估框架将有所帮助。事实上,可以将西班牙经济视为一个经典案例,其增长模式本身是有缺陷的,随后又出现了一个主要由贸易部门推动(但有所滞后),可预测,并且是政策辅助的复苏。

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