Las auténticas dificultades para el crecimiento

MILÁN – La experiencia de las economías avanzadas desde la crisis financiera de 2008 ha impulsado un debate en rápida evolución sobre el crecimiento, el empleo y la desigualdad de ingresos. No debe extrañar: para quienes esperaban una recuperación relativamente rápida de la crisis, cuanto más inmutable se mantiene la situación, más cambia.

Poco después de que el sistema financiero estuviera a punto de desplomarse, la opinión de consenso en pro de una recuperación cíclica bastante normal se disipó al resultar evidente la magnitud de los daños en los balances y el efecto del desapalancamiento en la demanda interna, pero, pese a que el desapalancamiento está muy avanzado, el efecto positivo en el crecimiento y el empleo ha sido decepcionante. En los Estados Unidos, el crecimiento del PIB sigue siendo inferior a lo que, hasta hace poco, se había considerado su tasa potencial y el crecimiento en Europa es insignificante.

El empleo sigue siendo menor y está retrasando el crecimiento del PIB, configuración que comenzó a darse al menos hace tres recesiones y que ha llegado a ser más pronunciada con cada una de ellas. En las economías más avanzadas, el sector de bienes comercializables ha engendrado un crecimiento del empleo muy limitado, problema que hasta 2008 “resolvió” la demanda interna al emplear a muchos trabajadores en el sector de bienes no comercializables (Administración, atención de salud, construcción y venta al por menor).

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