Pour une croissance équitable

MILAN – En cette période, il est d'usage de dresser le bilan de l'année écoulée et d'envisager les perspectives de l'année qui s'ouvre. En ce qui concerne l'économie mondiale, c'est aussi une nécessité.

Au cours de l'année dernière, le risque systémique a diminué. L'Europe a reconnu la nécessité de stabiliser la zone euro, avec comme moteur la BCE et l'Allemagne. En Chine le changement de dirigeants s'est achevé et le cap politique qu'ils ont annoncé est relativement clair. Il prévoit notamment plus d'équité entre le secteur privé et le secteur public et un rôle croissant ("décisif") pour les marchés. En Allemagne, les élections législatives ont entériné la continuité politique, même si une assez longue période de faible croissance et de chômage élevé paraît inévitable.

Les pays émergents (Chine exceptée) n'ont été que momentanément déstabilisés par leur anticipation du resserrement de la politique monétaire américaine. Ils se préparent néanmoins à une hausse générale des taux d'intérêt, accompagnée d'un ralentissement transitoire de la croissance.

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