Le plongeon des devises des marchés émergents

MUNICH – Pour de nombreuses économies émergentes, 2014 a mal commencé. Les préoccupations à propos du ralentissement marqué de l'économie chinoise et de la dégringolade du peso argentin par rapport au dollar américain ont déclenché de fortes pressions à la vente sur un éventail de devises de marchés émergents. Pourtant, la volatilité actuelle ne présage pas un ralentissement significatif de la croissance des économies émergentes dans leur ensemble. Il est nécessaire de différencier entre pays, et c'est ce que les marchés financiers sont à présent en train de faire.

L'ampleur des dégâts varie largement d'un pays à l'autre. Par exemple, les problèmes qui frappent actuellement l’Argentine sont tout sauf une surprise. Au contraire, ils sont le résultat quasi-inévitable de nombreuses années de mauvaise gestion politique, qui ont engendré une forte inflation, une monnaie extrêmement surévaluée et une érosion massive des réserves de change.

En revanche, les devises des marchés émergents en Europe centrale et de l'est sont restées relativement stables. Par exemple, grâce à la performance économique robuste de la Pologne, le zloty a largement maintenu son taux de change face à l'euro, ne perdant que 2,2% depuis le début de l'année (à compter du début de février). Le forint hongrois a perdu un peu plus de 5% par rapport à la monnaie unique au cours de la même période, ce qui est moins important que dans le passé, lorsque les problèmes macro-économiques du pays rendaient le taux de change beaucoup plus sensible à l'évolution des sentiments du marché.

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