El consumidor alemán no cuenta

MÚNICH – Como la reequilibración mundial va a ocupar un puesto importante en el programa de las próximas reuniones del G-7 y del G-20, Alemania, con su persistente superávit de exportación, volverá a recibir presiones para que impulse la demanda interna y el consumo de los hogares, pero el consumidor alemán no cuenta. Lo que hace falta es un intenso y rápido aumento de la inversión en Alemania y Europa y un abandono coordinado de las políticas monetarias excesivamente relajadas.

Unos desequilibrios enormes en las cuentas externas desempeñaron un papel importante en la crisis económica y financiera que estalló en 2008, además de en la posterior inestabilidad de la zona del euro. Ahora la economía mundial está reequilibrándose, pero no del modo que muchos habían esperado.

Los enormes superávits externos de Asia en el pasado se han reducido de forma asombrosamente rápida y la balanza comercial del Japón ha acabado siendo incluso deficitaria. El superávit por cuenta corriente de China ha caído hasta el dos por ciento del PIB, frente al 10 por ciento en 2007. La inversión sigue siendo el motor principal de la economía china, pero ha creado una deuda que ha aumentado vertiginosamente y un desmesurado sector bancario sumergido, que las autoridades están intentando frenar.

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