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PRAGA – Tres ex repúblicas soviéticas – Georgia, Moldova y Ucrania – han firmado acuerdos de asociación con la Unión Europea, a pesar de los intentos, a veces brutales, de Rusia para obstaculizar el proceso. Esto es ciertamente un logro prometedor para todos estos países, que han luchado para alcanzar la estabilidad desde la disolución de la Unión Soviética. No obstante, sería ingenuo pensar que Rusia se dará por vencida tan fácilmente.

Como lo ha demostrado la crisis de Ucrania una vez más, las ex repúblicas soviéticas que intentan tomar decisiones geopolíticas sin el consentimiento del Kremlin no permanecen intactas por mucho tiempo. En Georgia, las regiones separatistas de Abjazia y Osetia del Sur han tenido una independencia de facto desde que Rusia las reconoció en 2008. Actualmente, las posibilidades de su reintegración parecen más lejanas que nunca.

Por su parte, Moldova ha estado luchando durante dos décadas para afirmar su control sobre la región separatista de Transnistria. Además, en febrero la pequeña región autónoma de Gagauzia, con una población de origen turco, anunció mediante un referéndum apoyado por Rusia que tiene el derecho de separarse si Moldova “pierde su condición de Estado”. Ahora el peligro es que los líderes separatistas busquen manipular la pérdida de soberanía supuestamente inherente a la asociación con la UE para reivindicar ese derecho.

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