Der Umarmung des Bären entkommen

PRAG – Trotz der manchmal brutalen Versuche Russlands, dies zu verhindern, haben jetzt drei ehemalige Sowjetrepubliken Assoziierungsabkommen mit der Europäischen Union unterzeichnet – Georgien, Moldawien und die Ukraine. Für diese Länder, die seit der Auflösung der Sowjetunion um Stabilität kämpfen mussten, ist dies sicher eine vielversprechende Entwicklung. Aber es wäre naiv zu glauben, Russland würde so leicht aufgeben.

Wie die anhaltende Krise in der Ukraine erneut gezeigt hat, bleiben ehemalige Sowjetrepubliken, die versuchen, ohne die Zustimmung des Kreml geopolitische Entscheidungen zu treffen, nicht lang intakt. In Georgien sind die abtrünnigen Regionen von Abchasien und Südossetien seit der Anerkennung durch Russland im Jahre 2008 de facto unabhängig. Heute sind die Aussichten auf ihre Rückkehr schlechter als je zuvor.

Moldawien wiederum hat sich zwei Jahrzehnte lang bemüht, die Kontrolle über die abtrünnige Region Transnistrien zu behalten. Darüber hinaus hat die winzige autonome Region Gaugasien mit ihrer indigenen türkischen Bevölkerung durch eine von Russland unterstützte Volksabstimmung ihr Recht erklärt, sich im Fall der Auflösung des moldawischen Staates abzuspalten. Die Gefahr besteht nun, dass sezessionistische Politiker den angeblich mit der EU-Assoziierung einhergehenden Verlust an Souveränität als genau solche eine Auflösung interpretieren.

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