As Opções do Mundo Árabe

AMÃ – Quando o despertar Árabe se iniciou em 2011, o seu principal objectivo deveria ter sido a promoção do pluralismo e da democracia – causas que foram negligenciadas durante o primeiro e anticolonialista despertar do mundo Árabe no século XX. Mas, depois de três anos de luta, esse processo ainda mal se iniciou. Conseguirá o segundo despertar Árabe atingir finalmente os seus objectivos?

A resposta depende de qual dos três modelos for usado pelos países Árabes na condução da sua transição: um modelo inclusivo e clarividente, que vise a criação de consensos; uma abordagem de vencedor absoluto, que exclua grandes segmentos da população; ou uma abordagem de não parar por nada, focada na sobrevivência do regime. Estes modelos reflectem as grandes diferenças existentes nos países Árabes entre as circunstâncias actuais e as perspectivas para o futuro.

O exemplo mais forte do modelo inclusivo é a Tunísia, onde antigos adversários formaram um governo de coligação, sem interferência militar. Claro que o processo não foi fácil. Mas, depois de uma luta tensa, os Tunisinos reconheceram que a cooperação era o único caminho possível.

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