La Reserva Federal va a acelerar

CAMBRIDGE – La Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos enfatizó que su política monetaria dependerá de lo que muestren los indicadores económicos. Pero se necesitarían datos muy improbables para que se aparte de su plan implícito: terminar la compra de activos a largo plazo (flexibilización cuantitativa) en octubre de 2014 y comenzar a subir el tipo de interés de referencia, a partir del nivel actual cercano a cero, en algún momento del primer semestre de 2015.

Los mercados financieros se desviven por anticipar si el aumento será en marzo o en junio. Mi mejor estimación es que será en marzo, pero la fecha de inicio es menos importante que el ritmo de aumento en sí y el nivel que alcanzará el tipo de referencia a fines de 2015.

Entre los miembros del Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto encargado de fijar el valor, hay divergencia de opiniones, pero en término medio, en la última reunión del Comité se planteó una tasa de entre 1,25% y 1,5% para fines de 2015. Incluso para fines de 2016, el punto medio del intervalo de opiniones no supera el 3%.

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