为何美联储将加快步伐

美国剑桥—美联储强调其货币政策将由经济指标表现决定。但需要极度反常的数据才会改变美联储实际确定的在2014年10月结束其长期资产购买操作(所谓的量化宽松)并从2015年上半年开始从当前的近零水平上提高联邦基金利率的决定。

金融市场沉溺于预测会在3月还是6月提高利率。尽管我个人的猜测是美联储将在3月提高利率,但什么时候开始并不重要,重要的是提高利率的节奏,以及2015年年底时的利率水平。

决定利率的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)各成员意见不一。最新的 FOMC会议的中位意见表明,2015年底时的联邦基金利率将是1.25—1.5%。即便在2016年底,中位意见也不到3%。

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