期待2014?

发自剑桥——在过去的六年中,我一直对那些对下一年美国经济增速持续乐观的预测持怀疑态度。当大多数预测者和政策官员看到复苏的苗头和信心依据之时,我却看到了会令经济衰退并随之导致复苏疲软的强大阻力。

但我认为2014年的迹象是更为均衡的。虽然在未来一年美国经济依然面临严重的风险,但增长也很可能会显著强于衰退开始之前的状况。

2007年夏末,当我在美联储杰克逊霍尔年度会议上谈到经济前景的严重风险时,经济仍在扩张。我警告说,房价已经在2006年夏天从危险的高水平开始下跌,这意味着未来建筑业的崩溃和家庭财富的巨大损失。家庭财富减少将反过来导致消费支出下降,进一步遏制GDP增长。

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