Die Rettung der Renten

CAMBRIDGE – Weltweit sind die öffentlichen Rentenprogramme in Schwierigkeiten. Durch die ständige Zunahme der Lebenserwartung steigt die Anzahl der Rentner stärker als die Steuereinnahmen zur Finanzierung der Rentenzahlungen.

In den Vereinigten Staaten rechnet das Haushaltsbüro des Kongresses damit, dass die relativen Kosten des Rentenprogramms der Sozialversicherung in den nächsten 25 Jahren um mehr als ein Viertel steigen, von heute 4,9% des BIP auf 6,2% im Jahr 2038. Da die Steuern, die für die Finanzierung des Programms der sozialen Sicherung vorgesehen sind, nicht automatisch schneller steigen als das BIP, müssen entweder die Wachstumsraten der Rentenzahlungen reduziert oder die Steuern erhöht werden.

Ein Grund für die schnelle Zunahme der Zahlungen liegt in der Art, wie sie an die Inflation gekoppelt sind. Unter der aktuellen US-Gesetzgebung passen sie sich automatisch an Steigerungen des Konsumentenpreisindex (CPI) an. Aber Experten haben längst erkannt, dass der CPI die wahre Steigerung der Lebenshaltungskosten übertreibt, und dass die daraus entstehende Überindizierung der Renten rückgängig gemacht werden muss.

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