Die unmögliche Nachfrage der Weltwirtschaft

WARSCHAU – Die glorreichen Tage der Weltwirtschaft sind sicher vorüber. Und dennoch widmen sich politische Entscheidungsträger dem Management der kurzfristigen Nachfrage, in der Hoffnung zu den hervorragenden Wachstumsraten aus der Zeit vor der Krise von 2008/2009 zurückzukehren. Das ist ein Fehler. Wenn man die neo-klassischen Wachstumsfaktoren analysiert – Arbeitskraft, Kapital und Gesamtfaktorproduktivität –, erscheint es zweifelhaft, ob die Stimulierung der Nachfrage als effektive kurzfristige Maßnahme geeignet ist oder gar langfristig nachhaltig sein kann.

Wenn wir die Wachstumsfaktoren einzeln betrachten, sehen wir zunächst, dass in den nächsten 15 Jahren die demographischen Veränderungen das Wachstum des Arbeitsangebots überall außer in Afrika, Nahost und Südzentralasien wenn nicht umkehren, so doch wenigstens erheblich verlangsamen werden. In Europa, Japan, den USA und schließlich auch China und Ostasien werden Arbeitskräfte fehlen.

Obwohl eine großangelegte Migration aus Regionen mit Arbeitskraftüberschuss in Defizitregionen den empfangenden Volkswirtschaften helfen würde, gäbe es mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit gesellschaftliche Widerstände, besonders in Europa und Ostasien. Eine Erhöhung der Erwerbsquote, besonders unter Frauen und älteren Arbeitnehmern, könnte zwar unter Druck geratene Arbeitsmärkte etwas entspannen, aber das allein wäre nicht ausreichend, um der Abnahme der Erwerbsbevölkerung entgegenzuwirken.

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