Les trois illusions de l'Allemagne

BERLIN – Ces derniers jours, le représentant allemand au sein du conseil des gouverneurs de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) a exprimé un total désaccord avec la décision prise le 7 novembre de diminuer son principal taux directeur. Par ailleurs, la Commission européenne a ouvert une enquête pour déterminer si l'important excédent des comptes courants allemands entraîne des préjudices économiques en Europe et au-delà. Cette enquête et les critiques à l'égard du modèle économique germanique qui repose sur les exportations ont fait scandale en Allemagne. Devient-elle le bouc émissaire des problèmes de l'Europe, ou bien est-elle réellement en décalage avec l'économie européenne et même mondiale ?

Pendant fort longtemps les Allemands ont été parmi les plus europhiles des Européens, mais ils sont devenus peu à peu hostiles à la zone euro et à sa monnaie unique. Un parti politique ouvertement anti-euro a vu le jour, et même s'il n'a pas eu de représentants élus au Bundestag lors des élections législatives de septembre, son avenir semble prometteur. C'est tragique, car l'Allemagne la première devrait être porteuse d'une vision convaincante de l'avenir européen.

Trois illusions sont à l'origine de l'aversion croissante des Allemands à l'égard de l'intégration européenne - et de la difficulté de beaucoup d'entre eux à comprendre que leur pays serait le premier perdant d'un effondrement de l'euro.

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