Die Bewältigung des chinesischen Krisenmanagements

PEKING – Auf der „Zentralen Wirtschaftskonferenz“ in China, an der die obersten Entscheidungsträger des Staates teilnahmen, einigte man sich kürzlich auf die Fortsetzung der expansiven Haushalts- und Geldpolitik, die man im letzten Quartal 2008 eingeleitet hatte. Allerdings forderte man auch, verstärktes Augenmerk auf eine Änderung des chinesischen Entwicklungsverlaufs sowie auf die Wiederherstellung der Ausgewogenheit der wirtschaftlichen Strukturen zu legen.  

Dieser viel früher als in anderen Ländern unternommene Schritt signalisiert den „Ausstieg“ Chinas aus den von der Krise bestimmten wirtschaftspolitischen Strategien. Tatsächlich sollte China seine Kursänderung beschleunigen. Obwohl durch die expansive Politik eine V-förmige Rezession gelang, sind die mittel- und langfristigen Auswirkungen einer derartigen Politik Besorgnis erregend.

Erstens wird der durch massive Investitionsnachfrage geprägte Wachstumsverlauf Chinas durch das Krisenmanagement noch problematischer. Chinas Investitionsrate ist im Vergleich zu anderen wichtigen Ökonomien extrem hoch und seit 2001 beständig angestiegen, wodurch zunächst eine Überhitzung und danach Überkapazitäten entstanden. Bis zu der im Jahr 2008 einsetzenden globalen Finanz-/Wirtschaftskrise überlagerte eine starke Exportwirtschaft das Problem der chinesischen Überkapazitäten, das sich nun aufgrund des Konjunkturprogramms zu verschärfen droht. Im Jahr 2009 hat die Investitionsrate in China den Wert von 50 Prozent möglicherweise überschritten.

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