中国危机管理政策亟待盘整

发自北京 —— 在最近召开的中央经济工作会议上,众多中国高层决策者都选择继续执行在去年第四季度展开的扩张性财政和货币政策。但会议也同时提出,要将重点放在中国经济发展模式的转换以及平衡经济结构方面。

而这一举措所带来的信号,就是中国 —— 抢在其他国家之前 —— 已经率先开始摆脱由危机所主导的经济政策。事实上中国有必要加快这一自身转换的进程,因为这一系列扩张性政策虽然确保中国实现了经济的 V 型复苏,但这些政策所可能带来的中长期影响却是令人忧心的。

首先 , 中国的危机管理导致其自身发展模式 —— 以大规模投资需求为特点的 —— 所产生的问题更加严重。相对于其他主要经济体,中国的投资比率过高,而且自 2001 年以来就不断上升,导致了首轮经济过热以及随后产生的产能过剩问题。然而直到 2008 年的全球金融危机到来之前,强劲的出口势头掩盖了国内的产能过剩,而这一问题的严重性却在一揽子经济刺激计划的影响下进一步加深。事实上,中国的投资比率在 2009 年度已经超过 50% 了。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/5KElJKR/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now