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工作之后的美好生活

发自伦敦—几乎所有“机器人降临”的故事都遵循着一种屡试不爽的模式。正如一个典型新闻标题咆哮的那样:“Shop Direct在线商店将导致英国流失2000个工作岗位”。接着文章会引用着名研究机构和智囊团的权威报告,这篇议论性文章通常会导致读者过高评估“职位不保”的状况—即生活受到高科技自动化威胁的劳动者的占比。引用另一个有代表性的例子:“一份新的报告表明,(人工智能)与机器人技术的结合可以取代如此多的就业岗位,以至于大规模就业时代或许行将结束。”

有时候人们会通过将“工作”与“任务”区分开来以缓解这种黯淡的前景。也就是说只有工作的日常重复性部分才会被取代。在对“工作的未来”的某些更乐观评估中,人类将成为机器的辅佐,而不是与机器竞争。

这种乐观的情景在某种程度上是基于过去发生过的一些情况:随着时间的推移,机械化虽然消灭了一些职位,但却创造了更多的高工资职位。它还基于对机器人当前能力的更清醒评估(尽管在它们最终能够做什么方面还存在分歧)。此外一些乐观主义者还认为自动化将提高人类平均智能水平。更为富裕且老龄化的人口将需要更多的人类护理人员、护士、清洁工,培训师和治疗师。

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