Konec vzájemně zaručeného zničení?

MOSKVA – Tento měsíc tomu budou dva roky, co americký prezident Barack Obama zveřejnil v Praze svou vizionářskou představu světa bez jaderných zbraní. Před rokem Rusko a USA ve stejném městě podepsaly novou smlouvu o strategických zbraních. A nyní se celosvětová vlna podpory úplného zákazu jaderných zbraní neboli „jaderné nuly“ přetavuje v debatu o jaderném odstrašení. Čtyři američtí stratégové, kteří po „jaderné nule“ volali jako první – Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, William Perry a Sam Nunn –, totiž částečně slevili a dnes volají po konci doktríny „vzájemně zaručeného zničení“.

Jejich recepty, jak toho dosáhnout, jsou bohužel nejasné. Jejich jediný konkrétní návrh spočívá v asymetrickém snižování počtu taktických jaderných zbraní Ruskem a USA. Taktické zbraně však pro nikoho nepředstavují vážnou hrozbu. Rusko navíc nemá zájem tuto část svého jaderného arzenálu podstatně snižovat. Potřebuje tyto zbraně, aby psychologicky vyvážilo převahu NATO – na rozdíl od éry studené války – v oblasti konvenčních sil. Ještě důležitější je, že Rusko tyto zbraně pokládá za pojistku proti možnosti, aby převahu konvenčních sil získala i Čína.

Silně pochybuji o tom, že je potřebné obejít se bez jaderného odstrašení. Koneckonců tento nástroj desítky let fungoval: bezpříkladná geostrategická, vojenská a ideologická konfrontace v éře studené války nikdy neeskalovala v otevřený a přímý konflikt. Existence jaderných zbraní navíc omezovala závody v konvenčním zbrojení.

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