Christine Lagarde and Janet Yellen Yin Bogu/ZumaPress

宏观审慎政策的利弊

蒙得维的亚—央行行长们仍在担心泡沫丛生的资产市场——从2008—2009年的金融危机看,理应如此。所谓一朝被蛇咬,十年怕井绳也。而最近中国股市暴跌显然让他们更加担忧了。

考虑到经济增长的萎靡,证券价格高得有些离谱。债券价格在日本银行、美联储和欧洲央行采取量化宽松后一飞冲天。从伦敦到旧金山的房地产价格已经达到了让人喷血的水平。那么,应该做些什么将发生快速急剧的资产价格反转的风险降到最低?

多年来,这一问题引起了一场“遏制还是清理”的争论:央行应该“遏制”泡沫,打压引起金融稳定风险的资产价格,还是等到泡沫破裂后清理混乱局面?后一个方针的支持者包括前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan),该方针质疑决策者是否能可靠地识别泡沫,认为总体而言管理资产价格绝非易事。

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