Bridge in Buenos Aires, Argentina

Las perspectivas inciertas de la Argentina

SHANGÁI – La elección de Mauricio Macri como presidente de Argentina puso fin a 12 años de gobierno al mando de Néstor Kirchner y Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. La administración de Macri hereda una economía en estado delicado. Si Macri no actúa de manera cuidadosa, Argentina podría enfrentar una crisis de la balanza de pagos, debido al deterioro de las condiciones externas y la mala gestión macroeconómica, especialmente a partir del año 2011.

Algunos aspectos de la situación económica de Argentina, sin embargo, son muy deseables – notablemente su baja relación deuda/PIB. Como resultado, el gobierno de Macri se enfrenta a una tarea mucho menos intimidante en comparación a la que confrontó Kirchner en el año 2003, después de que el experimento de una década de duración durante la cual se aplicaron las políticas del Consenso de Washington (la desregulación financiera, la liberalización del comercio y la privatización), junto con la paridad del peso con el dólar de EE.UU., terminaran en un desastre. Cuando Kirchner asumió el cargo, Argentina acababa de atravesar por la crisis económica más severa de toda su historia. El desempleo, la desigualdad, la pobreza y la deuda nacional, todo ello, se había incrementado. La desindustrialización masiva y el debilitamiento profundo de su sistema de educación no se constituían en buenos augurios para el futuro.

Tras la devaluación y la moratoria, Argentina experimentó una recuperación espectacular. En una economía en la que la demanda estaba severamente constreñida, el gobierno de Kirchner aplicó políticas que condujeron a una reducción masiva del desempleo, la pobreza y la desigualdad. Una reestructuración profunda de la deuda contribuyó, en gran medida, a la restauración de la sostenibilidad macroeconómica.

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